Toronto Poses The Worst Playoff Threat To Texas In 2016

The Texas bullpen is 39-19 in 2016, by far the best record in baseball. It is an amazing fact considering its earned run average is 4.36, tied with Minnesota for worst in the league. That is a dangerous statistic heading into the postseason, especially when the Rangers will be facing the winner of the wild card game.

Ordinarily the team with the best record, which is Texas this season, would prefer that the Wild Card round winner come from a different division. The unbalanced schedules have already brought about six series between the teams, so such familiarity often serves as a disadvantage when compared to playing a team against which there have been just one home and one away series.

Based on their domination of West rival Houston, who is currently in the thick of the chase for the Wild Card, the Rangers would likely prefer that the Astros advance over the other contenders. Texas has gone 15-4 against Houston, a stat that is bound to give the Rangers a huge psychological advantage should the two clubs meet in the A.L. Division Series.

The least desirable matchup for Texas, based on its league-worst ERA, would be Toronto. The Blue Jays are currently leading in the Wild Card race, which would pit them at home against the Baltimore Orioles.

Toronto’s bats pose the worst threat for the Texas bullpen which, in spite of winning twenty more decisions than losing, is vulnerable because of the high ERA. You better believe that the Blue Jays will certainly get to the Rangers relievers sooner than later, considering the number of pitches their biggest sluggers see per at bat.

Overall, American League hitters face 3.86 pitches for every plate appearance, according to baseball.reference.com. Toronto as a team sees an average of 4.3 pitches each time they step to the plate, the only club in either league to have an average over four.

What makes them even more threatening is the pitch per at bat averages of its prominent sluggers, including last year’s Most Valuable Player Josh Donaldson. The All-Star third baseman currently sees 4.24 pitches with each at bat, while outfielder Jose Bautista sees 4.25 and first baseman Edwin Encarnacion averages 4.12.

Those three, who are well above the league average, are not even the best on their team in that category. Catcher Russell Martin, who usually hits toward the bottom of the order, faces a league leading 4.29 pitches per at bat.

It is basically the same lineup that propelled Toronto to the A.L. Championship Series last year, where getting to the bullpen early proved to be a disadvantage. Their opponent and eventual World Series Champions, the Kansas City Royals, boasted the strongest bullpen of all the contenders.

The Texas relievers cannot keep winning with such a high ERA, especially against the tough competition they will face in the postseason. The team likely stands a better chance of avoiding its bullpen against Baltimore, Detroit, or Seattle, who all have pitch per at bat averages closer to the league norm.

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